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What 100 Years of Market History Tells Us About Your Retirement Plan

2/26/2026

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​Note: The examples and case studies in this article are hypothetical but represent real situations I have encountered in my practice working with Washington State public employees.

I got a call last week from a client.

She's 53, a PERS 2 member with 28 years in, sitting on about $650,000 between her DCP and personal savings. Planning to retire at 58 in just under five years.

"Seth, I'm nervous," she said. "The market keeps going up. It feels like we're due for a crash. Should I move everything to bonds?"

I get this question alot right now.

When stocks have been strong for a while, it's natural to assume something has to give. That the rally can't continue. That one bad downturn could wipe out decades of careful saving.

Recently, Morningstar published their quarterly Market Observer report with a fascinating chart mapping nearly 100 years of US stock market history.¹ When you zoom out and look at that full century of data, several widely accepted beliefs about market crashes start to look far less certain.

This matters enormously for Washington State public employees planning retirement.

Because the decisions you make today about your DCP, your pension option, and your investment strategy will determine whether you can actually retire in your late 50s and maintain your lifestyle for 30+ years.

The Chart


​The Morningstar chart tracks US stock market performance from 1926 through 2025, color-coding three distinct phases: expansions (when markets climb to new highs), downturns (drops of 20% or more), and recoveries (the climb back to previous peaks).¹
Picture
What jumps out immediately is how much time the market spends recovering and expanding versus declining.

Over the past century, the market spent about 142 months in bear market (down) territory. It spent another 349 months working its way back to prior highs.¹ Add those together and roughly 40% of market history has been falling from or climbing back to previous peaks.

And yet, despite all those setbacks, the market has compounded wealth for long-term investors over and over again.

Three Myths That Could Derail Your Retirement Plan


Let me walk through the three common beliefs the Morningstar data actually challenges.

Myth 1: This Rally Has Been Too Strong


Since the market bottomed in September 2022, we've seen solid returns. Strong enough that many people assume this can't continue.

But here's what the data shows.

Since 1926, there have been 11 total market expansions. The average expansion lasted just under six years. The market more than tripled in value on average during these expansions, delivering roughly 21% annual returns.¹

The current expansion? As of late 2025, it was only in its 25th month. Less than half the historical average. And the annual return during this stretch has been right around 21%, essentially in line with what we've seen in past expansions.¹
Picture
This rally is not the unprecedented outlier many think it is.

It's actually tracking right along with historical norms.

Now, does that guarantee a catastrophic drawdown isn't around the corner? Of course not. But the strength of this rally alone is not a reason to panic or make drastic changes to your retirement investment strategy.

Myth 2: This Bull Market Is Getting Old


It's been over three years since the market bottomed in September 2022. People hear that and think we must be due for a downturn.

​But historically, the average recovery period (the time it takes for the market to climb back to a prior high after a downturn) has lasted almost exactly three years.¹
Picture
When you combine the average recovery time with the average expansion, you're looking at roughly nine years on average from a market low to the next high.¹

By that historical measure, this bull (up) market is far from long in the tooth.

I'm not saying stocks will simply keep going up. What I am saying is that making investment decisions based on a gut feeling that "it's been going up too long" isn't a sound strategy.

History shows bull markets can and often do last much longer than people expect.

Myth 3: One Bad Bear Market Will Ruin Everything


This is the fear that keeps many up at night.

The idea that one nasty crash could wipe out years of progress and destroy your retirement plan.

Bear markets are real and they're painful. The 2008 financial crisis is proof of that.

​But here's what that century of data shows: despite spending roughly 40% of market history either falling from or climbing back to previous peaks, the market has consistently compounded wealth for disciplined, long-term investors.¹
Picture
As Morningstar wisely put it, “the US stock market's long-term success has never been a story of uninterrupted progress. It's been a story of resilience amid setbacks.”¹

Why This Matters for Washington State Public Employees

If you're planning to retire at 58 with a PERS, TRS, SRS, or LEOFF pension, you're looking at potentially 35+ years in retirement.

That's a long, time horizon.

Your DCP account and personal savings need to bridge the gap until your pension starts, cover the years between retirement and Social Security, and provide supplemental income throughout retirement.

The question isn't whether the market will experience another downturn. We all know it will.

The question is whether your plan is built to withstand it.

The Real Risk (And It's Not a Crash)

I need to acknowledge something important here, especially for those of you within five years of retirement.

While the long-term data is reassuring, the timing of a downturn relative to when you start taking withdrawals from your portfolio matters enormously.

This is called sequence of returns risk.

Two retirees can own the same portfolio with the same long-term average return, yet the one who suffers a major downturn early in retirement can end up in a dramatically worse position. Why? Because they're forced to sell more investments at lower prices to fund withdrawals.

This is precisely why I advocate for having the right asset allocation in the three to five years before retirement.

It's why I recommend maintaining what I call a "war chest" of five years' worth of withdrawals in high-quality short-duration bonds.

It's why your pension is so valuable as a foundation. It allows you to take strategic equity exposure with your DCP and personal savings without being forced to sell stocks at the worst possible moment.

You need a plan that ensures you don't have to liquidate investments during a downturn to pay for basic living expenses, cover a tax bill, or fund that Alaska cruise you've been planning for years.

What Actually Ruins Retirements

If 100 years of market data tells us a crash alone won't ruin your retirement, what will?

In short, it's not a bear market. It's what you do when one shows up.

It's halting your DCP contributions because headlines are scary.

It's moving everything to cash and waiting for things to settle down.

It's trying to time your way back in and missing the recovery.

It's buying expensive products that promise downside protection while quietly eating away at your long-term returns.

And maybe the most overlooked: it's being so afraid of the next downturn that you never actually enjoy the money you worked so hard to save.

I've seen this countless times. The greatest risk in retirement isn't overspending. It's underspending.

The fear that this rally is too strong or that a crash is right around the corner causes retirees to sit on their savings and never give themselves permission to spend.

They skip the trip. They put off the kitchen renovation. They say no to experiences with grandkids.

Not because the math says they can't afford it, but because they're terrified the next downturn could take it all away.

The market's long-term track record is not one of fragility. It's one of resilience.

If your plan is properly built with the right guardrails in place, you should feel confident spending the money you've worked decades to save.

What This Means for Your Plan

A properly structured retirement plan for early retirement means:

Having a diversified portfolio across multiple asset classes that complement each other.

Maintaining that war chest high-quality short-term bonds to cover expenses for the next 3-5 years so you're not forced to sell stocks in a down market.

Having an investment policy statement that documents your strategy and your response plan for when markets get ugly, so you don't get caught up in emotions and make irrational changes.

Coordinating your pension, Social Security, DCP withdrawals, and personal savings to minimize taxes and maximize spending flexibility.

As Morningstar highlights, there's nothing wrong with preparing for periodic adversity. In fact, you need to prepare for it. But the argument that stocks are just one nasty downturn away from complete failure doesn't hold up based on market history.¹

The Bottom Line

Morningstar's historical research won't accurately tell any of us what the market will do over the next year, five years, or even ten years. Nobody can.

What historical data like this does is provide context.

And that context helps us make more informed, less emotional decisions about our retirement plans.

The biggest risk for most retirement savers isn't the next bear market. It's abandoning a perfectly good plan simply because short-term noise got too loud.

Because you didn't work 30 years to spend retirement worrying about market crashes that historical data suggests your plan can handle.

​Sources
  1. Morningstar. "The Beautiful Chart That Busts 3 Stock Market Myths." February 9, 2026. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/beautiful-chart-that-busts-3-stock-market-myths
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The Annuity Question I Keep Hearing (And What You Should Know Before Signing)

2/19/2026

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Note: The examples and case studies in this article are hypothetical but represent real situations I have encountered in my practice working with Washington State public employees.

I was sitting in a meeting with a client last month when she pulled out a colorful brochure.


"My brother-in-law says I need one of these," she said. "For guaranteed income."


It was an annuity proposal. Variable annuity with riders and guarantees. Promises that her retirement would be "protected."


She'd been planning to retire at 62 with about $750,000 saved. Now she was second-guessing everything.


I looked at the proposal. Then I looked at her situation.


The Fear That's Real

Here's what I see happening.

People are living longer. A 65-year-old today has an average life expectancy of 84, according to Social Security.¹ But that's just average. If you're healthy with longevity in your family, you might need to plan for 30 years in retirement.


That's a long time to make money last.


And inflation doesn't take a break. Since 1925, it's averaged about 3% per year.² At that rate, someone who needs $50,000 today would need nearly $120,000 in 30 years just to buy the same stuff.


So the fear is real. Running out of money. Watching your purchasing power shrink. Market crashes at exactly the wrong time.


Annuity salespeople know this. They know exactly which buttons to push.


And the promise of guaranteed lifetime income? It sounds perfect.


But here's what I want to walk you through. How these guarantees actually work. What they cost. And what you're giving up.


Two Types You'll Hear About

At the basic level, there are two kinds.

Deferred annuities
are like a traditional IRA wrapped in an insurance product. You put money in. It grows tax-deferred. Later, you convert it to income payments.

Immediate annuities
work differently. You hand the insurance company a lump sum (say $100,000). They immediately start sending you monthly checks. For a set number of years, or for life.

Annuities purchased through the Washington State Department of Retirement Systems are immediate annuities.


But here's the thing. When you buy one, you're handing over control. That money's gone. You can't change your mind. You can't leave it to your kids if you die early.


Instead of keeping the money invested and managing it yourself, you're betting the insurance company's guarantee is worth more than the flexibility.


What Is a Variable Annuity?
Most of what I'm seeing pitched are variable annuities.

Think of it like this: mutual funds + tax deferral + insurance contract.


The mutual funds look like what you'd see in your 457(b) or 401(k). Stock funds, bond funds. Your account goes up and down based on what those funds do.


The insurance contract is where it gets complicated.


But first, here's something critical.


If you're funding a variable annuity with IRA money or DCP money, you're putting tax-deferred dollars into a tax-deferred product.


You already have the tax benefit. You're paying extra fees for something you don't need.³


There are cases where someone really wants the insurance features. Income guarantees. Death benefits. That might justify it.


But you need to know you're paying for those features on top of the tax deferral you already had.


The Guarantee That Isn't What It Sounds Like

Here's where people get tripped up.

Variable annuities have guarantees. The salesperson will tell you things like "your account is guaranteed to grow 7% per year no matter what" or "once your account hits a new high, that's locked in forever."


Those statements aren't lies.


But they don't mean what you think they mean.


The guarantees apply to something called the "income benefit base." It's an accounting number. A calculation the insurance company uses to figure out how much income they'll pay you later.


It's not actual money you can touch.


Your real account value (the money you'd get if you cashed out) still goes up and down with the market.


Let me show you what this looks like.


You invest $100,000. The market drops. Your investments are now worth $80,000. You decide you want out.


You get $80,000 minus surrender charges. If you're in year one with a 7% surrender charge, that's another $5,600 gone. You walk away with $74,400.


The "guaranteed 7% growth" doesn't protect you from that.


The actual insurance kicks in later. If you keep the contract and start taking income, and poor markets eventually drive your account to zero, the insurance company keeps paying you.


That's real. That's the benefit.


But it's not a guarantee on money you can access today. It's a promise about income payments maybe 10 or 15 years from now.


When you're deciding if this is worth it, ask this: If I cancel this contract in one year, three years, five years, how much do I actually get back after fees and taxes?


What You're Really Paying For

Variable annuities are insurance. Insurance costs money.

Every guarantee you see costs something. Downside protection. Inflation riders. Income for life. Nobody's giving that away.


Here is an example of how the fees are stacked on top of each other:


Mortality and expense: 1.00% to 1.50% per year. Admin fees: 0.10% to 0.20%. Annual contract fee: $25 to $50. Mutual fund expenses inside: 0.50% to 1.50%. Surrender charges if you leave early. Rider fees: another 0.40% to 1.50% each.


According to FINRA's analysis of over 48,000 annuity policies, total fees can hit 3.88% per year.⁴


Let me put that in real numbers. I met with someone recently who had $1 million in a variable annuity. The fees were running about 3% per year. That's $30,000 annually.


The Lock-In You Don't See Coming

Even when someone realizes the annuity doesn't fit, getting out isn't simple.

Enter: Surrender charges.


Typical schedule: 7% of your premium in year one, declining 1% each year over seven to ten years.


On $1 million, a 7% surrender charge is $70,000. Just to access your own money.


In year four? Still $40,000 (assuming it drops to 4%).


These aren't just fees. They lock you into the contract's original assumptions. The income structure. The investment options. Everything.


Then the surrender period stretches across years when things change. The economy improves. Your health changes. Tax laws change. Your goals shift.


But you're stuck. The contract doesn't change. And the cost to leave is too high.


Inflation Eats Fixed Payments

Variable annuities are invested in stocks and bonds. But the income guarantees? Usually fixed in nominal dollars.

If you fall back on the guarantee, you're locked into a flat payment. Inflation slowly destroys it.


Let's say you start taking $30,000 per year. In ten years, you're still getting $30,000. But at 3% inflation, you'd need $40,300 to buy the same stuff.


The annuity company will sell you an inflation rider. But it costs extra.


So you choose: locked-in payments that lose value every year, or higher fees.


Not great options.


Trading Growth for the Illusion of Safety

Here's the biggest issue.

You're trading decades of growth for short-term comfort.


Fixed indexed annuities are the perfect example.


They sound great. Principal "protected" from losses. You "participate" in market gains.


But when the market goes up 15%, you might get 7% to 10%. Because of caps. Spreads. Participation limits.⁵


So yes, when the market drops 30%, you don't lose anything that year. Feels good.


But since 1928? S&P 500 returns are positive about 67% of the time. And since 1970 they are positive about 75% of the time (custom analysis with data from Macro Trends).


Every one of those positive years, you're getting a fraction of the actual return.


But to clarify, as long as you can avoid selling investments at a loss, you’re not actually losing money. So over a long enough period of time the “protection” you are buying from the insurance company is very likely not necessary.


That's not protection. That's opportunity cost dressed up as safety.


What To Do Instead

So if these have high fees, kill flexibility, create inflation risk, and trade away growth, what's the alternative?

Build your own.


A globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. A flexible withdrawal strategy. Cash and bonds for volatility protection.


Here's how it works.


Keep roughly five years of withdrawals in high-quality, short-term bonds and cash. Not junk bonds.


If you need $50,000 per year from your portfolio, maintain about $250,000 in that stability bucket. The rest stays in stocks for growth.


When markets drop 20% or 30%, you're not selling stocks. You're pulling from bonds and cash. The stocks recover. You're not paying 3% or 4% in fees for this.


You're just diversified properly.


And if you hire an advisor to help, you're still paying a fraction of what annuities cost. Plus you get actual planning. Tax strategy. Estate planning. Real advice.


The Tax Trap

Here's what nobody talks about.

Variable annuities destroy your tax flexibility.


When you take money out, all the growth is taxed as ordinary income. Not capital gains rates. Not qualified dividend rates. Ordinary income.³


For most people, that's the highest rate they'll pay. Could be 22%. Could be 24%. Could be 32% or higher.


Compare that to a regular brokerage account.


Long-term capital gains? 0% to 20% depending on income. Most retirees pay 15%. Qualified dividends get the same treatment.


You control what you sell. When you sell it. You can harvest losses to offset gains. Manage your tax bill year by year.


With an annuity? Once money goes in, every dollar of growth comes out as ordinary income.


And if you're under 59½, the IRS adds a 10% penalty.


If you funded it with IRA money, it's even simpler. Every dollar out is ordinary income. The annuity didn't improve your taxes at all. You just added expensive insurance features to dollars that were already going to be fully taxed.


Questions to Ask

If someone's pitching you an annuity, here's what you need clear answers to:

What type is it? Variable? Fixed? Indexed? Immediate?


What does it cost each year? Every fee. All of them.


What are the surrender charges? Exact schedule.


Are there caps on returns? Participation rates? What growth am I giving up?


Is income adjusted for inflation? How much does that cost?


How is guaranteed income calculated? Actual account value or internal benefit base?


What planning services am I getting? Or just insurance?


How does this affect my tax flexibility?


If you can't get specific answers, don't sign.


What That Client Decided

We walked through all of this.

The fees. The opportunity cost. The flexibility she'd lose. The surrender charges. The inflation problem.


She didn't need more guaranteed income at the cost of fees, growth, and flexibility.


She needed a comprehensive plan. One that coordinated her accounts, Social Security timing, taxes. One that gave her confidence without locking everything away.


No annuity. No surrender charges. No 3.5% annual fees. No locked-in payments losing value to inflation. No sacrificed growth. No destroyed tax flexibility.


Just a clear plan. Confidence without giving up control.


She still has that brochure somewhere. But she's not using it - well maybe as a coaster for her morning coffee.


Sources
1. Social Security Administration. "Period Life Table." ​https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html​
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Consumer Price Index." ​https://www.bls.gov/cpi/​
3. Internal Revenue Service. "Annuities - A Brief Description." https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/annuities-a-brief-description
4. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "Variable Annuities: What You Should Know." ​https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/variable-annuities​
5. Fidelity Investments. "What is a fixed indexed annuity?" ​https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/retirement/fixed-indexed-annuity​
6. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. "Decision Rules and Portfolio Management for Retirees: Is the 'Safe' Initial Withdrawal Rate Too Safe?" Journal of Financial Planning, October 2006.

-Seth Deal

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This is What a Real $750,000 Retirement Portfolio Looks Like for a Washington Police Officer

2/12/2026

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​Note: The examples and case studies in this article are hypothetical but represent real situations I have encountered in my practice working with Washington State public employees.

I met with a prospective client recently who had a question that stopped me cold.

"Is this enough?"

He was 53, a police officer with 25 years of service. He'd saved diligently. Followed all the right advice. And now he was staring at his retirement accounts wondering if the numbers actually worked.

The balances looked impressive on paper. But he couldn't tell if impressive on paper meant secure in retirement.

I pulled up his accounts. DCP - 457(b) showed just over $450,000. A taxable brokerage account at $200,000. And a Roth IRA he'd been contributing to for years sitting at $100,000.

$750,000 total. Plus his LEOFF 2 pension.

The question wasn't whether the numbers looked good. It was whether they could actually support 30+ years of retirement starting at age 55.

The Reality of a LEOFF 2 Retirement at 53


LEOFF 2 members can retire at age 53 with full benefits. No reduction. No penalty1.

With 25 years of service and a final average salary of about $12,000 per month, his unreduced pension would be around $6,600 monthly.

But then comes the decision that keeps people up at night.

Single Life or Joint Survivor? Or something else?

The Survivor Benefit Decision Nobody Wants to Make


Single Life pays the full $6,600.

100% Survivor pays about $5,676 to him. If he dies first, his wife (same age) receives the exact same amount.2

That's a $924 per month difference. $11,088 per year. Every year. For as long as he lives.

But if he takes Single Life and dies first, his wife gets nothing from the pension.

This is where the $750,000 in other accounts becomes critical.

We ran the numbers assuming he chose 100% survivor. The reduced pension protected his wife, but they needed the portfolio to bridge gaps and provide flexibility.

How the Three Income Sources Actually Work Together


Most people think of retirement income as pension plus portfolio withdrawals.

But LEOFF 2 retirees and many other Washington public employees have three distinct income sources that need coordination:

The LEOFF 2 Pension:
Starting at 55, he'd receive about $5,676 per month with Joint Survivor. Guaranteed. Adjusted annually for cost of living up to 3%.1

Social Security:
He could start as early as 62, but the longer he waits, the higher the benefit. At his full retirement age (67 for someone born after 1960), his estimated benefit is around $3,500 monthly.3

Portfolio Withdrawals:
The $750,000 across three accounts provides flexibility but requires careful sequencing to manage taxes.

The coordination matters because each income source has different tax treatment.

His LEOFF 2 pension is fully taxable. Social Security might be partially taxable depending on other income. His Roth IRA comes out tax-free.

The Real Withdrawal Strategy


Here's what we built for him:

Ages 55-62:
Live primarily on the pension ($5,676/month) plus strategic withdrawals from the taxable account. This bridges the gap until his full Social Security retirement age. The taxable account has a mix of gains and basis, so we can manage tax impact carefully. This keeps his tax bracket manageable before Social Security starts. We are also evaluating strategic Roth conversions during this time.

Ages 62-67:
Continue the pension, add Social Security at the full retirement age (around $3,500/month at 67), and reduce portfolio withdrawals.  Roth conversions continued to be evaluated each year during this time.

Age 67+:
Full Social Security benefit ($3,500/month) plus pension ($5,676) gives him $9,176 in guaranteed income. Portfolio withdrawals become supplemental for discretionary spending, large expenses, and maintaining purchasing power.

The DCP ($450,000) is the workhorse. It's penalty-free after separating from service, even before age 59½.4  We can tap it strategically in those early years without IRS penalties that would hit a traditional IRA.

The Roth IRA ($100,000) sits untouched as long as possible. No required minimum distributions. No taxes on withdrawal. It's the tax-free reserve for later years when other income might push him into higher brackets.

Why Multiple Accounts Require a Coordinated Strategy


The real complexity isn't having $750,000.

It's knowing which account to pull from when. And how much. And how that affects taxes this year and ten years from now.

Take a simple question: Should he withdraw $30,000 this year?

From the taxable account? He'll pay capital gains on the appreciated portion.

From the DCP? Fully taxable as ordinary income. But it reduces future RMDs.

From the Roth? Tax-free, but he's depleting his only tax-free reserve.

There's no universal "right answer." It depends on his tax bracket that year, expected income next year, Roth conversion opportunities, and long-term distribution planning.

This is why having three distinct accounts with different tax treatment requires more than just a withdrawal rate.

It requires a withdrawal sequence. A tax strategy. A multi-year plan that adjusts as circumstances change.

What This Actually Means


This client's $750,000 isn't impressive because of the number.

It's impressive because of what it enables when coordinated with his pension and Social Security.

The LEOFF 2 pension provides the foundation. Guaranteed income he can't outlive.

Social Security adds a layer of inflation-protected income in his mid-60s.

The portfolio gives him flexibility, tax planning opportunities, and protection against the unexpected.

None of these pieces work in isolation. But together, they create a retirement that's both sustainable and flexible.

That's what a real retirement portfolio looks like for a Washington police officer. Not just big numbers in separate accounts, but a coordinated strategy that turns savings into decades of income.

​Sources
  1. Washington State Department of Retirement Systems. "LEOFF Plan 2." https://www.drs.wa.gov/plan/leoff2/
  2. Washington State Department of Retirement Systems. "Beneficiary information." https://www.drs.wa.gov/beneficiary/
  3. Social Security Administration. "Retirement Benefits." https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/
  4. Internal Revenue Service. "IRC 457(b) Deferred Compensation Plans." https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/irc-457b-deferred-compensation-plans
 
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The Debt Question I Keep Hearing from Washington Public Employees

2/5/2026

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Note: The examples and case studies in this article are hypothetical but represent real situations I have encountered in my practice working with Washington State public employees.

There's a question I hear some version of almost every month.


A public employee in their late 50s, usually with 25-30 years of service, tells me they want to retire early. Then they pause and add, "But I still owe $40,000 on my mortgage. Should I just keep working until it's paid off?"


The specifics change. Sometimes it's a teacher. Sometimes it's a firefighter. The loan balance might be $30,000 or $80,000. But the core question is always the same.


And the person asking always looks exhausted.


Here's what strikes me about these conversations. These folks typically have saved very well between their DCP accounts and personal investments. Their pensions will cover most of their basic expenses. But that remaining debt feels like an anchor keeping them from the retirement they've been planning for decades.


I see this pattern constantly with Washington State public employees in their final working years. The debt question
becomes this massive psychological barrier, even when the numbers tell a different story.


The Real Cost of Staying Longer

Let's talk about what "just working a few more years" actually means.

Those aren't abstract years. They're specific mornings, actual weekends, real family moments. They're the years when your body still wants to be active. When your parents might still be around. When retirement doesn't just mean resting, it means living.


But here's the thing I've learned working with public employees. The debt conversation is almost never really about the math.


It's about safety. It's about not wanting to mess up after decades of doing everything right.


What the Numbers Actually Show

Your DRS pension has a specific structure¹. Your benefit is based on your average compensation and years of service. Working extra years to pay off debt might increase your pension slightly, but you need to run the actual calculation.

Oftentimes, the math isn’t the problem. The feeling of carrying debt into retirement is the problem.


When Debt Actually Matters

I'm not going to tell you that debt never matters. That would be ridiculous.

Here's what I look at when a client brings up debt in their final working years.


The interest rate matters more than the balance.
A $30,000 car loan at 7% interest is  very different than a $200,000 mortgage at 3.5%. One is actively draining your resources. The other is barely keeping pace with inflation.

The payment matters more than the total.
Can your projected retirement income (pension plus Social Security plus portfolio withdrawals) comfortably cover your monthly obligations? That's the question. Not whether you could theoretically pay everything off before you retire.

The Strategy
Here's what I've seen work for Washington State employees who want to retire early but have debt.

Compare the guaranteed return.
Paying off a 7% car loan is like earning a guaranteed 7% return on that money. That's actually pretty good. Paying off a 3.5% mortgage when your investment accounts might earn 7-8% annually? The math favors keeping the mortgage.

But here's where it gets personal. Some people sleep better with no mortgage payment, even if it's not the optimal financial move. That's a legitimate consideration.


Consider the PEBB healthcare bridge.
If you retire before 65, you can continue PEBB coverage2. But you'll be paying the full premium out of pocket. That's another monthly obligation to factor in alongside your debt payments. Don't forget to include it in your retirement budget.

Think about Social Security timing.
Most Washington public employees can claim Social Security benefits in addition to their pension. If you retire at 58 but wait until 67 to claim Social Security, you have a nine-year gap to plan for.

The Question You Should Actually Be Asking

Not "Should I pay off my debt before I retire?"

The better question is "Can I afford my debt payments in retirement?"


If the answer is yes, and if keeping that debt allows you to retire years earlier than you would otherwise, then the debt isn't your enemy. It's just a monthly expense like any other.


If the answer is no, then you need a different plan. Maybe that's working longer. Maybe that's refinancing. Maybe that's downsizing to a smaller house. But at least you're solving the actual problem instead of just feeling anxious about debt in the abstract.


I think about the public employees I've worked with who've faced this question. The ones who ran their numbers, made a plan, and decided to retire with manageable debt often tell me later how relieved they are that they didn't wait.


They talk about finally having time for the things they'd been putting off. Backpacking trips they'd been planning for years. More time with aging parents. Volunteering for causes they care about.


That's what this is really about. The debt is just numbers on paper. Your life is the thing that's actually happening.


Sources
1. Washington State Department of Retirement Systems. "PERS Plan 2 Member Handbook." https://www.drs.wa.gov/plan/pers2/
​
2. Washington State Health Care Authority. "PEBB Continuation Coverage." https://www.hca.wa.gov/employee-retiree-benefits/retirees

-Seth Deal

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      Authors

      Bob Deal is a CPA with over 30 years of experience and been a financial planner for  25 years.

      Seth Deal is a CPA and financial advisor.

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    ​LifeFocus Financial Advisors, LLC
    420 Wellington Ave, Suite 101
    Walla Walla, WA  99362
    509-526-4521
    [email protected]
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